Earthquake Hazard

King-Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, P.O.Box:1946, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia, Telephone: (966) (03) 860-1661  Fax : (966)(250) 860-2595

• Earthquake Probability
  • What is probability?
• Natural Hazards in Time
• Seismic Zones in Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia
  • Proposed by Abdalla and Al-Homoud (2004)
  • Maximum Expected Earthquakes
  • Calculated Seismicity Parameters
    • 1008-2002
• Frequency-Magnitude Statistics for Regions
  • 1) Main Zagros Thrust Zone
    • Log N=10.17-1.22 M
  • 2) North East Arabian Gulf Region
    •  Log N= 6.99 - 0.94 M
• Calculation of Poisson Earthquake Probability of M>7 (T=30 yrs)
  • 1) Main Zagros Thrust Zone
    • %72
  • 2) North East Arabian Gulf Region
    •  %7

• Earthquake Hazard and Risk
  • How big? How much damage? Where? When? How often?
•  Types of Earthquake Hazards
  • Primary (Natural):  Fault Rupture and Ground Shaking   
  • Secondary (Triggered) Hazard: Landsliding, Liquefaction, Tsunami
•  Earthquake Data for Hazard Assessment
  • Earthquake Source
  • Seismic Potential (Seismicity)
  • Attenuation Relation
  • Site Response
  • Geological Hazard Characterization
• Ground Shaking in Future Earthquakes
  • Finding the "Hotspots": More Shaking Areas
  • Earthquake Ground-Motion Amplification in Southern California
• Ground Shaking in Previous Earthquakes
  • Why great damage occurred in Santa Monica due Northridge EQ, 1994?
• Geological Hazards triggered by Earthquakes
  • Liquefaction
  • Tsunami

• Shaking Models: BSSA Special Issue, 2000
• What is expected ground motion?
  • Example
• Seismic Hazard Assessment
• Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Methodology
  • Example 1: What is probability?  PGA=0.3 g  t=50 yrs
  • Example 2: What is PGA?  P(t)= %10 and t=50 yrs
• Relationship between Distance-Horizontal Velocity
• World-wide attenuation relation for M7.5
• Parameters of Attenuation Relation
• Hazard Products
  • USGS Hazard Map Anaylsis Tools
  • USGS Computer Programs for Calculating Hazard
• Hazard and Seismic Risk?