Earthquake Hazard Analysis

King-Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, P.O.Box:1946, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia, Telephone: (966) (03) 860-1661  Fax : (966)(250) 860-2595

Earthquake Rate, Frequency and Probability

• Frequency-Magnitude Model through the Saudi Arabia (Oncel, 2006)
• Microzonation Model of Saudi Arabia (Al-Amri, 2005)
• Earthquake Parameters for subzones of SA
• Interrelationship between Mmax and Tectonic Stress in SA
• Magnitude-Prediction Models (Wells and Coppersmith, 1994)

• Surface Rupture versus Moment Magnitude
• Average Displacement versus Moment Magnitude

• Compared Microzone Model to Macrozone Model of SA
• Compared different microzoning models for Eastern of SA
• Compared microzones models to current seismicity
• Case Work: Seismic Hazard of Eastern Arabia (Abdalla and Al-Homoud, 2004)

·        What are the Annual Rates of M7 events of Regions (1 and 2)?

·        What is the Recurrence Time of M7 events of Regions (1 and 2)?

·        What is the Poissonian Probability of M7 events of Regions (1 and 2) in 30 yr?

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)

o       Seismic source characterization

§         Example: North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)

v     Long-Term Earthquake Occurrence of NAFZ

v     Paleoseismology

o       Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source

§         Example: Cascadia Subduction Zone

v     Time-Dependent Probability versus Recurrence Times

v     Magnitude-Area Relations

v     Developing  Uniform Earthquake Catalogues

v     Magnitude-Frequency Models

o       Selection of ground motion attenuation models

§         Attenuation of Intensity with Distance

§         Physics of Attenuation Formulae

§         Comparison of M7.5 Attenuations Models

o       Quantification of the seismic hazard

§         Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Problem

§         Hazard Integral and Poisson Probability (Cornell, 1968)

§         Statistical Approach to Seismic Hazard

v     Example 1:  Calculation of PGA values by Cornell Equation, based upon the measured distances

v     Example 2:  Calculation of Probability for PGA values

v     Example 3: Calculation of PGA values for any Probability