King-Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, P.O.Box:1946, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia, Telephone: (966) (03) 860-1661 Fax : (966)(250) 860-2595
Earthquake Rate, Frequency and Probability
· What are the Annual Rates of M7 events of Regions (1 and 2)?
· What is the Recurrence Time of M7 events of Regions (1 and 2)?
· What is the Poissonian Probability of M7 events of Regions (1 and 2) in 30 yr?
o Seismic source characterization
§ Example: North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)
v Long-Term Earthquake Occurrence of NAFZ
o Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source
§ Example: Cascadia Subduction Zone
v Magnitude-Area Relations
v Developing Uniform Earthquake Catalogues
§ Physics of Attenuation Formulae
§ Comparison of M7.5 Attenuations Models
o Quantification of the seismic hazard
§ Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Problem
§ Hazard Integral and Poisson Probability (Cornell, 1968)
§ Statistical Approach to Seismic Hazard
v Example 1: Calculation of PGA values by Cornell Equation, based upon the measured distances
v Example 2: Calculation of Probability for PGA values
v Example 3: Calculation of PGA values for any Probability