Prediction of the Start of the Holy Month of Ramadhan 1428 H

The Calculations are done for the Longitude and Latitude of Makkah AlMukarramah Area and the times are for Local Time of Saudi Arabia (GMT+3)

Makkah Al-Mukarramah: Latitude = 21:39° N , Longitude = 39:46° E

Wednesday (30 Shaaban 1428 H, 12 September 2007)

Thursday (1 Ramadhan 1428 H, 13 September 2007)

New Moon of Ramadhan (conjunction) occurs on Tuesday 11 September 2007 at 3:45 pm, which will happen during a partial solar eclipse that is visible in South America and Antarctica, which is an indication that observers there will witness the birth (conjunction) of the Moon. Note that new moon is different from the new crescent that is the first appearance of the crescent after the conjunction of the Moon with the Sun (Sun, Earth, Moon will be in the same plane). The visibility of the crescent occurs after certain period of time from the new moon depending on the position of the moon relative to the Sun, its altitude, duration of stay, and its elongation after the sunset and of course the atmospheric conditions and the observer's health, age, ability, experience, etc.

Day	Date (2007)	Sun Rise hh:mm	Moon Rise hh:mm	Sun Set hh:mm	Moon Set hh:mm	Moon Altitude & Azimuth at Apparent Sunset	According to:
							UmmUlQura Calendar	Possibility of Sighting
Tue	11 / 9	6:07	5:50	18:28	18:24	Below the horizon	29 Shaaban	29 Shaaban
Wed	12 / 9	6:07	6:41	18:27	18:55	5.7 º , 264 º	30 Shaaban	30 Shaaban
Thu	13 / 9	6:07	7:30	18:26	19:26	12.7 º , 255 º	1 Ramadhan	1 Ramadhan

According to calculations, the birth of new moon occurs about 2 ¾ hours before the sunset on 11 September 2007 in Makkah AlMukkaramah area and the moonsets about four minutes before the Sunset. Therefore and according to calculations, it is not possible to sight the moon on that evening due to its absence (below the horizon) as indicated in the table. But on the evening (moment of sunset) of Wednesday 12 September 2007, the 30^th of Shaaban 1428 H according to Umm UlQura calendar, it will be possible to sight and see the crescent (probably, with some optical aids) because the age of the moon will be about 27 ¼ hours, stays about 30 minutes above the horizon, its visible part is about 1.2 % of the full moon, about 6 degrees above the horizon at sunset, and about 12.2 degrees between the Moon and the Sun (elongation). For crescent sighting: pick a dark area away from city light with clear horizon toward the west. At the sunset, the altitude of the moon above the horizon will be about 5.7 degrees, it is about 11 degrees to left (south) of the setting sun (the Sun sets due to West), and the shape of the crescent moon will be slightly tilted to the left as shown in the figure. The conclusion is that, Inn-Shaa-Allah, Thursday 13 September 2007 will be the first day of month of Ramadhan 1428 H based on calculations and sighting criteria as indicated in the table, and Allah has the knowledge (wAllahuAllam).

The above prediction is based on calculations and may be used merely for the purpose of a general guidance and one must go with the method of actual sighting of the moon, the method which, our Prophet Mohammad - PBUH - (SallAllhuAlihiWassallam) guided and ordered us to observe and follow, and Allah has the knowledge (wAllahuAllam).

Dr. Ali Mohammad Al-Shukri, Chairman of Physics Department, Physics Department, KFUPM, Box 5047, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia * Phone: 860-2255 or 860-3573 * Fax: 860-2293

email: alshukri@kfupm.edu.sa Homepage: http://faculty.kfupm.edu.sa/phys/alshukri

Prediction of the End of the Month of Ramadhan 1428 Hejriah

And the Start of Month of Shawwal 1428 H

The Calculations are done for the Longitude and Latitude of

Makkah AlMukarramah Area and the times are for Local Time of Saudi Arabia

Makkah Al-Mukarramah: Latitude = 21:39° N , Longitude = 39:46° E

Friday (30 Ramadhan 1428 Hejriah, 2 November 2007)

Saturday (01 Shawwal 1428 Hejriah, 3 November 2007)

New Moon of Shawwal Occurs on Sunday 11 October 2007 at 8:02 a.m. The following table shows Sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset, and moon's positions as observed from Makkah and its vicinity.

Day	Date (2007)	Sun Rise hh:mm	Moon Rise hh:mm	Sun Set hh:mm	Moon Set hh:mm	Moon Altitude & Azimuth at Apparent Sunset	According to: ing to
							UmmUlQura Calendar	Possibility of Sighting
Thu	11 / 10	6:15	6:15	18:00	17:59	On the horizon	29 Ramadhan	29 Ramadhan
Fri	12 / 10	6:15	7:12	17:59	18:32	6.4 º , 248 º	30 Ramadhan	30 Ramadhan
Sat	13 / 10	6:16	7:57	17:58	19:09	13.5 º , 240 º	01 Shawwal	01 Shawwal

Calculations show that the birth of the new moon occurs about ten hours before the sunset on Thursday 11 Octoberr 2007 in Makkah AlMukkaramah area and it sets in about a minute before the sunset. Therefore and according to calculations, it is not possible to sight the moon on that evening due to its absence (below the horizon) ^* as indicated in the table. But on the evening (moment of sunset) of Friday 12 October 2007, the 30^th of Ramadhan 1428 H according to Umm UlQura calendar, it will be possible to sight and see the crescent since the age of the moon will be about 34 hours, stays about 33 minutes above the horizon, its visible part is about 2 % of the full moon, more than 6 degrees above the horizon at sunset, and about 15.6 degrees between the Moon and the Sun (elongation). For crescent sighting: pick a dark area away from city light with clear horizon toward the west. At the sunset, the altitude of the moon above the horizon will be about 6.4 degrees, it is about 14 degrees to left (south) of the setting sun (the Sun sets about 13 degrees left of West), and the shape of the crescent moon will be slightly tilted to the left as shown in the figure. The conclusion is that, Inn-Shaa-Allah, Saturday 13 October 2007 will be the first day of month of Shawwal 1428 H based on calculations and sighting criteria as indicated in the table, and Allah has the knowledge (wAllahuAllam).

For crescent sighting: provided the sky is clear, pick a dark area away from city light with a clear horizon toward the west. The shape of the crescent moon should look as shown in the figure.

The above prediction is based on astronomical formulas and calculations and may be used merely for the purpose of a general guidance and one must go with the method of actual sighting of the moon, the method which, our Prophet Mohammad SallAllhuAlihiWassallam guided and ordered us to observe and follow and Allah has the knowledge.

^* There is a possibility of sighting the crescent after the sunset in southern part of South America on Thu. 11 October 2007 since it is above the horizon, has enough brightness and with large angular distances from the Sun and the horizon, therefore the start of month of Shawwal for those regions may be on Friday 12 October 2007. Also there is a possibility, but extremely weak, to sight the crescent immediately after the sunset with optical aid since it is above the horizon in southern part of South Africa, and Allah has the knowledge.

Dr. Ali Mohammad Al-Shukri, Chairman of Physics Department, Physics Department, KFUPM, Box 5047, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia * Phone: 860-2255 or 860-3573 * Fax: 860-2293

email: alshukri@kfupm.edu.sa Homepage: http://faculty.kfupm.edu.sa/phys/alshukri