ISE 205 Engineering Probability and Statistics

Catalog Description

Basic concepts and tools for non-deterministic systems. Elementary and conditional probability, random variables, distribution theory, hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, use of operating characteristic curves, parameter estimation, laboratory projects consisting of selected computer applications.

Course Objectives

Introduce the students to basic concepts in probability & statistics to enable them

Summarize and present data
Describe probability distributions and compute probabilities
Conduct point and interval estimation
Make inference about populations
Apply these concepts in practice with emphasis on engineering applications, design and decision making

Method of assessment	Homework & Participation	15
Method of assessment	Quiz	20
	Exam I	20 (March 19 in Lab)
	Exam II	20 (April 30 in Lab)
	Exam III	25

Topics		Classes
1.	Descriptive Statistics: data Summary and Presentation The Engineering methods and statistical thinking. Role of statistics, stem and leaf, frequency distribution, measure of position, measures of dispersion and skewness. Box plot, time series Reference: Chapters 1 & 6	4
2.	Probability Sample space, basic set theory (complementation - combinatorial analysis), fundamentals of probability, laws of probabilities (independence, conditional probability, Bayes rule) Reference: Chapter 2	4
3.	Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distribution Concept of a random variable: concept of mass function, distribution function, expected value, binomial, geometric, hyper-geometric, Poisson distributions Reference: Chapter 3	5
4.	Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions Continuous random variable, probability density function, distribution function, expected value, uniform, normal, exponential, gamma and Weibull distributions Reference: Chapter 4	5
5.	Sampling Distribution Random sampling, sampling distribution of the sample mean and the sample variance Reference: Chapter 7	2
6.	Estimation Theory Classical estimation (point and interval estimation), estimating the mean and the variance, constructing confidence interval for the difference of means and the ratio of variances Reference: Chapters 8 and 10	6
7.	Joint probability distributions Joint probability distribution for discrete and continuous random variables, covariance and correlation Reference: Chapter 5	4
Text Book	D.C. Montgomery and C. Runger, Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, Wiley
Pre-requisite	Math 201 Calculus II
References	Hines et al, Probability and Statistics in Engineering,Wiley
Attendance	University rules regarding unexcused absences will be enforced.
Homework	Students must submit the homework on time. No late homework will be accepted.
Computer Usage	Every student has to have a Blackboard account; this is essential since homework solutions, grades, etc will be posted in the course Blackboard. Basic knowledge of Excel is required. Minitab will be used.
Instructor	Dr Muhammad Al-Salamah Office: 22/436 Phone: 1627 email: salamah@kfupm.edu.sa Office Hours: Saturdays and Mondays from 10:00 to 11:00am Sundays and Tuesdays from 1:00 to 2:00 pm Industrial and Systems Engineering King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals 2005
	الوصف: المفاهيم الأساسية والأدوات اللازمة للنظم الغير قطعية. مبادئ الاحتمال و الاحتمال المشروط، المتغيرات العشوائية والتوزيع من الناحية النظرية، واختبار الفرضيات، والثقة، واستخدام المنحنيات، وتقدير خواص الدالات. المادة: الاحتمالات و الإحصاء الهندسي مدرس المادة: الدكتور محمد بن فهد السلامة برنامج الهندسة الصناعية و النظم قسم هندسة النظم جامعة الملك فهد للبترول و المعادن