Prediction of the Start of the Holy Month of Ramadhan 1427 H

 

The Calculations are done for the Longitude and Latitude of Makkah AlMukarramah Area and the times are for Local Time of Saudi Arabia (GMT+3)

 

 Makkah Al-Mukarramah: Latitude = 21:39° N ,  Longitude = 39:46° E

Text Box: Prediction according to Calculations:    [ Saturday  (30 Shaaban 1427 H, 23 September 2006) ]

              

[ Sunday  (1 Ramadhan 1427 H,  24 September 2006) ]

 

New Moon of Ramadhan (conjunction) occurs on Monday 22 September 2006 at 2:46 pm, which will happen during an annular solar eclipse that is visible in South America and West Africa, which is an indication that observers there will witness the birth (conjunction) of the Moon.  Note that new moon is different from the new crescent that is the first appearance of the crescent after the conjunction of the Moon with the Sun (Sun, Earth, Moon will be in the same plane).  The visibility of the crescent occurs after certain period of time from the new moon depending on the position of the moon relative to the Sun, its altitude, duration of stay, and its elongation after the sunset and of course the atmospheric conditions.

 

Day

(2006)

Date

Sun

Rise

Moon

Rise

Sun

Set

Moon

Set

Moon Altitude & Azimuth at sunset

According to:

 

UmmUlQura

Actual Sighting

Fri

22 / 9

6:09

5:56

18:18

18:17

Below the horizon

29 Shaaban

29 Shaaban

Sat

23 / 9

6:09

6:44

18:17

18:46

6.1 º ,   260 º

30 Shaaban

30 Shaaban

Sun

24 / 9

6:09

7:33

18:16

19:17

12.7 º ,   251 º

1 Ramadhan

1 Ramadhan

 

According to calculations, the birth of new moon occurs about 3 ½  hours before the sunset on 22 September 2006 in Makkah AlMukkaramah area and the moonsets about one minute before the Sunset. Therefore and according to calculations, it is not possible to sight the moon on that evening due to its absence (below the horizon) as indicated in the table. But on the evening (moment of sunset) of Saturday 23 September 2006, the 30th of Shaaban 1427 H according to Umm UlQura calendar, it will be possible to sight and see the crescent (probably, with some optical aids) because the age of the moon will be about 27 ½ hours, stays about 30 minutes above the horizon, its visible part is about 1.1 % of the full moon, about 6 degrees above the horizon at sunset, and about 12 degrees between the Moon and the Sun. For crescent sighting: pick a dark area away from city light with clear horizon toward the west. At the sunset, the altitude of the moon above the horizon will be about 6.1 degrees, it is about 10 degrees to left (south) of the setting sun (the Sun sets due to West), and the shape of the crescent moon will be  slightly tilted to the left as shown in the figure.  The conclusion is that, Inn-Shaa-Allah, Sunday 24 September 2006 will be the first day of month of Ramadhanl 1427 H based on calculations and sighting as indicated in the table, and Allah has the knowledge (wAllahuAllam).

 

The above prediction is based on calculations and may be used merely for the purpose of a general guidance and one must go with the method of actual sighting of the moon, the method which, our Prophet Mohammad - PBUH - (SallAllhuAlihiWassallam) guided and ordered us to observe and follow, and Allah has the knowledge (wAllahuAllam).

 

Dr. Ali Mohammad Al-Shukri,   Chairman of Physics Department

Physics Department,   KFUPM Box 5047,   Dhahran 31261,   Saudi Arabia

Phone: 860-2255   -    Fax: 860-2293

email: alshukri@kfupm.edu.sa   Home-page: faculty.kfupm.edu.sa/phys/alshukri